Navalny – Putin's Achilles heel

Alexei Navalny was defiant while on trial awaiting his inevitable sentence. It is the last episode of an epic confrontation between two men for the future of a nation. One is the man in the dock, Russia's main opposition leader, and now a world figure - compared by some to Nelson Mandela.

The other is the country's president for two decades, a former KGB colonel who seems determined to remain in power and crush a popular revolt against him. At first glance, the fight ended in a decisive victory for Vladimir Putin - Navalny was sentenced to two years and eight months in prison. However, the Kremlin has not been able to do what it wants most: break Navalny.

His decision to return and face jail refutes Putin's thesis on Russian politics that anyone who wants to oust him from the presidency is either corrupt or too weak to be trusted. However, Navalny's position on returning to Moscow has completely silenced Putin.

For years the Kremlin has wavered over what to do with Navalny, whose anti-corruption videos and investigative revelations have given him massive reach. Ignore, imprison or use other darker methods? The obvious ones didn't work, as he ignored the repeated threats and arrests. That is why an exasperated Putin gave the order to silence him.

Last summer, an undercover team from Russia's [SFS spy agency] poisoned Navalny while on tour in Siberia. They applied the nerve agent novichok, [used against Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23/skripal-salisbury-poisoning-decline-of-russia-spy-agencies -gru), on the inside seams of Navalny's underpants. Alexei Navalny survived thanks to a mix of luck and timely hospital treatment. He even managed to expose his SFS killers.

The Kremlin apparently calculated that Navalny would not dare return home from Berlin, where he had recovered from his poisoning. On January 17, however, Navalny flew back to Moscow, in a direct challenge to Putin. His on-arrival detention sparked street protests across Russia, in 180 towns and cities, from occupied Crimea to Vladivostok in the Pacific. In Yakutsk, protesters gathered in temperatures of -50°C.

Tens of thousands of Russians have rallied in support of Navalny, seeing in him the best prospect for change after a period of declining living standards, increasingly flagrant repression and high-level theft. This endorsement is by no means universal, but it represents the most serious challenge to Putin, who seems increasingly disconnected and isolated.

"Navalny is probably not a holy person," said Vladislav, a 24-year-old club sound engineer, while [protesting in Moscow's Pushkin Square](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/ 23/the-problem-is-putin-protesters-throng-the-streets-to-support-navalny). "But compared to what's happening now, to what's happening in city administrations across the country, with theft, it would be a lot better if he was in charge."

Authorities have responded with batons and violence to what they say are "illegal" gatherings, arresting more than 10,000 people. Moscow's detention centers are overflowing; With very few cells available, protesters are held for hours in frozen police vans. Journalists trying to shed light on the catastrophic situation in Russia have been attacked. A prominent editor was jailed for 25 days alone [for retweeting a meme](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-smirnov-mediazona-editor-jailed-joke--retweet-mass-gatherings-navalny/31084551 .html).

In his court speech, Navalny pointed out the absurdity of the Kremlin's case against him. (He is charged, among other violations, with delaying in informing probation officers that he was in a coma in Germany.) Navalny said he was behind bars because of "one man's hate and fear" - "I mortally offended him by surviving an attempt on my life that he ordered."

A lawyer by training, Navalny comes from a different world than the gray bureaucratic realm inhabited by Putin and his KGB friends. The Russian state has powerful tools at its disposal: a large, loyal security apparatus; obedient judges and prosecutors; and brilliant state TV networks that reliably publish anti-Navalny smears and propaganda.

On the other hand, Navalny has his own weapons. One is humor: an unparalleled ability to mock the country's corrupt rulers in a way ordinary Russians can understand. Nobody gets into Putin's shoes like Navalny does. The other is the lack of fear: a bravery of David against Goliath. Navalny has a different dimension from Putin. He is confident that the Russian opposition is historically destined to win.

Different experts point out that the latest riots differ from the 2011-12 protests, caused by electoral fraud. Recent protests feature all social groups; even outside of Moscow, the police cannot cope with the numbers. However, opposition leaders have halted the protests until spring, giving them time to regroup and focus on the upcoming elections.

Soviet origin

Navalny, born in 1976, belongs to a generation that grew up in the USSR but was not defined by it. His father, a communist, was an officer in the Soviet Missile Forces; Navalny spent his early years on military bases. His grandmother fought in the Great Patriotic War, as the Russians call World War II, and wrote his name on the wall of the liberated Reichstag in Berlin.

The family's attitude towards Soviet power was ambiguous. His mother had a copy at home of “[The Gulag Archipelago” by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn] (https://amzn.to/3uJlogr); his great-aunt was suppressed and sent to the mining town of Vorkuta north of the arctic circle. At the same time, Navalny's grandmother admired Stalin and described him as "our everything" because of his role in defeating Nazism.

It is tempting to compare Navalny to the 1970s dissidents and intellectuals who fought against Leonid Brezhnev and Soviet stagnation. But instead of samizdat, exchanged by hand and read in the kitchens, Navalny has social networks. The latest video of him about [Putin's secret palace] (https://youtu.be/ipAnwilMncI) on the Black Sea has amassed over 110 million views.

Confrontation with Putin

“It represents a much more serious prospect for change than anything we have seen in the 21st century,” suggests David Clark, a former special adviser to the late Foreign Secretary Robin Cook. “He is a right-wing populist with nationalist leanings. That is precisely what makes it so dangerous for the Kremlin. It's not easy to dismiss him as a western puppet. Navalny is a truly Russian phenomenon."

Navalny's supporters disagree with the nationalist label. Some describe Navalny's politics as "center-left" and claim that the regime's attempts to present him as a radical extremist are merely defamatory acts.

During different rallies, Navalny has shown a pro-European Democratic speech, although he has not completely renounced his anti-immigrant rhetoric. He has called for fair and transparent elections, an independent judiciary and a free media. As well as a minimum wage for all Russian citizens.

The biggest demand of him is an end to the rampant state corruption that has seen Putin's entourage amass billions of strategic ventures. In 2013 he ran for mayor of Moscow, winning, despite routine ballot manipulation by authorities, at least 27% of the vote. It is therefore not surprising that the Kremlin is clearly determined to keep Navalny locked up beyond the Duma elections in September.

He was poisoned last year while campaigning for "smart voting," urging Russians to back candidates opposed to the ruling United Russia party. This scared the Putin administration, as did the protests next door in Belarus.

Until recently, the Russian president refused to use Navalny's name, preferring to call him "that gentleman" or "the patient from Berlin." Paradoxically, it is the Kremlin's paranoid behavior towards Navalny that has made him a household name. Other opposition leaders have been expelled from the country (former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, now in London; world chess champion Garry Kasparov, who is in Croatia). Or have been assassinated: the fate of Boris Nemtsov, shot dead outside the Kremlin in 2015. Navalny is the last man standing

Will he be safe in jail? Nobody knows. Possibly Putin himself has not decided yet. Navalny is well aware of the possibilities, noting that he is now in the hands of people who like to smear everything with chemical weapons. At the moment, the world is watching closely. US President Joe Biden and other Western leaders [have demanded Navalny's release](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/04/biden-says-us-will-not-hesitate-to-raise- the-cost-on-russia.html).

Navalny's fate depends on whether he can persuade enough Russians to get over their fear of him and keep protesting, in front of truncheons and prison cells.

“The iron gates slam behind me with a deafening clank, but I feel like a free man,” he posted last week. “They can cling to power only by relying on our fear. But we, having overcome fear, can free our homeland from a handful of occupying thieves."