Joe Biden and the United States five years after the Paris Agreement: expected scenarios

An Unexpected Achievement

International society has always been attentive to the discoveries and analyzes that are produced in the most detailed and complex discussions of natural physical science; That is why these, at some point throughout the length and breadth of scientific controversies, have implications for the formulation of the law that will shape the agreements reached. But, we must not forget that the discussions of science, in turn, have political influences that condition it and many times, in an unfavorable scenario, stop it.

International law has been built with enormous efforts in the history of humanity, as the set of norms associated with the idea of the common good, just like politics, which tries hard to recover its lost status as a doctrine of the good life. and fair. International law is a faithful witness of the consensus of intellectuals, rulers and powerful, however, for many and many it continues to be the most ambiguous terrain marked by the lack of compulsory jurisdiction among the multidiverse set of States.

The Paris Agreement represents an unparalleled result, unexpected for some, which revealed the achievements that international will and coordination can achieve. Initially signed by former President Barack Obama and his team in September 2016,[1] one year later, on June 1, 2017, he is still president today and a few days after leaving office, Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States, but his departure was only formalized until November 4, 2020, due to the strict rules of the agreement itself to prevent a future president of that country, for example, from wanting to leave at some point. moment.[2] [3]

The departure and the expected return

There are expectations around the world fueled by an evident change that goes from the extreme of Donald Trump declaring that climate change is a hoax and/or a concept created by the Chinese[4], up to four years later with the promise of President-elect Joe Biden to rejoin the most important international agreement of our days on the matter, whose main objective is: "[maintain] the increase in world temperature in this century very by below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to further limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”[5] Addressing climate change was itself a [prominent factor in the election](https://www.pri.org/stories/2020-11-13/paris-agreement-gets-new-lease-life-under-biden-climate-advocates- say) in your favor.[6]

“Protesters opposing President Trump's climate policies project his message onto one of his hotels.” [\ [7 ]] (#_ftn1)

The exit of the United States, even without the presence of the second largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the world after China, did not break the Treaty, which today has 189 countries that represent 79% of global emissions.[\ 8] However, there have already been some recent consequences.

The United States was unable to attend the last Climate Ambition Summit ([Climate Ambition Summit 2020](https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/video/climate-ambition-summit-2020#:~:text =The%20United%20Nations%20(UN)%2C,adoption%20of%20the%20Paris%20Agreement)) on December 12 to celebrate the five years of adoption of the Paris Agreement, and as an important step on the way to the United Nations Conference of Parties on Climate Change (COP26), which will be hosted by the United Kingdom next November in Glasgow.

In said meeting of world leaders, by the way, a clear emphasis was made, perhaps derived from the fear of possible speculations and denials like Trump, that the climate change we are experiencing today is caused by human beings, measuring the global temperature and the oceans for more than a century and seeing that there is a clear upward trend; measuring the CO₂ that is rising in the atmosphere and showing with isotopes that most of the carbon comes from burning fossil fuels.[9]

Biden also signaled his intentions to host an extraordinary climate summit, with the participation of the world's major powers, during his first hundred days as president.[10] Unlike his predecessor the Protocol of Kyoto, which “set legally binding emission reduction targets (as well as penalties for non-compliance) only for developed nations, the Paris Agreement requires all countries – rich, poor, developed and developing – to do their part and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”[11]

The Paris Agreement has incorporated categories that distinguish countries based on their adaptation and mitigation goals, financing, and transparency.[12] In an environment of flexibility, countries can voluntarily set their goals for the reduction of CO₂ emissions, without sanctions. In turn, they are guided by equity and common responsibilities, however, in a differentiated manner depending on their national circumstances.[13]

These characteristics of the Agreement have been described by many as soft law, which has been part of the traditional schemes of International Environmental Law, and which opens up a renewed form of governance where the reviews to which the countries committed themselves every five years will be the substantial tool for the evaluation of individual and collective actions achieved.[14]

Are you the first president in the United States to withdraw from an environmental agreement?

No. Former Republican President George W. Bush announced in March 2001 that he would not implement the Kyoto Protocol, initially signed in 1997 by former President Bill Clinton -although it was not ratified by Congress- arguing that the treaty exempted countries in development and cause damage to the US economy. He indicated that he would not impose controls on CO₂ emissions, contrary to his electoral promises to do so, [15] coupled with his attempts to remove the environmental crisis from the country's political agenda, and even press to scientists to downplay the problem and to accommodate their skepticism about climate change.[16]

It is understandable that there is skepticism about Joe Biden's ability to retake the global environmental political agenda, it is visible that disbelief takes precedence over the political history of the United States in this matter and the inconsistencies of the climate agreements and environmental, however, with a firm declaration of intent, this can be a unique opportunity to influence financing projects and technological innovation that, today, are demonstrating their benefits and therefore their viability to favor the world economy, in order to achieve the so-called Green Economy indicated as the goal to be pursued, since the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

Five years after the Agreement, how are we doing and what is expected?

Recent studies show that renewable energy, such as wind and solar, is now cheaper than fossil fuel power in much of the world, while significant advances such as electric vehicles and battery storage are picking up pace and therefore affecting the energy and transport sectors. [17]

According to the main publication of the International Energy Agency, the World Energy Outlook 2020, it is estimated that there will be up to 43% more production of solar energy by the year 2040, due to recent studies that show that this energy is between a 20 to 50% cheaper than previously thought, even if this still does not mean that the demand for gas and coal will decrease in future years, for which much stronger political action against global warming will be necessary.[\ 18]

"Estimated levelized costs of electricity, from utility-scale solar with income support, [$30-60/MWh in Europe and the US, $20-40/MWh in China and India] in relation to the range of gas and coal power."[19]

In the midst of the overwhelming task, we can see promising elements in the current landscape, such as the commitments of more than a thousand companies around the world to adapt their structure to decarbonization and present reports on their progress towards achieving the goals. global targets, and President Xi Jinping's declaration to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently “smart companies and countries see a competitive advantage in getting ahead of the curve”[20] of the de-carbonized economy of the future.

It seems that the first step that Joe Biden should take is the simplest, send a letter to the United Nations agencies announcing his intention to rejoin the Agreement, and wait thirty days to make it official. The following is no longer so easy and for several experts the actions must be punctual and prompt: 1) Present a solid national climate commitment before the UN climate summit COP26, calling on companies, local governments and investors to participate together; 2) Align your contribution to funding in the Green Fund, the Adaptation Fund and the Global Environment Facility, as other world leaders have done, starting with the $2 billion still outstanding from Barack's 2014 pledge Obama. This would generate benefits to his economy, increasing the demand for clean technology exports [\ [21 ]] (#_ftn1)

Final thoughts. How the political crisis in the United States and Covid-19 influences

The political scenario of the United States, immersed in a Donald Trump more reluctant than ever to accept his electoral defeat without evidence in judicial instances to support it, and the unusual assault on the Capitol on January 6, leaves political tensions in the bipartisan democratic system today most analyzed by the world, causing greater divergence among American society, which is still experiencing the tensions of the Black Lives Matter movement and contagions ascendants of SARS-COV-2.

On the other hand, since the beginning of 2020 the Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on global energy demand, especially from fossil sources, and this year 2021 it is expected to continue generating significant decreases. The constant necessary confinement measures in several countries have been a point of international observance in this regard. But the confinement, experts say, continues to generate very small CO₂ reductions, which shows us that changes in behavior are not enough, and that these must accompany profound structural transformations of production.[[22]](# _ftn1)

While the political crisis in the United States barely allows to see its worst consequences, and uncertainty grows bigger every day, research to reduce global CO₂ continues its course; knowing that among the highest concentrations of greenhouse gases are generated in the primary sector of agriculture and livestock, some studies reveal that the spread of rock dust on land intended for agricultural activity could absorb billions of tons of carbon dioxide from the air each year, presenting it as a recent, short-term way of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere.[23]

From this moment we have almost ten months to monitor the progress of the Biden administration to rejoin the Paris Agreement and, above all, to see if the current division of the Republican Party between those who remain loyal to Trump and those who no longer, manages to mean opportunities for the Democratic opposition, while he can count on the support of the House of Representatives and the Senate, to achieve his promised environmental policy agenda.