Israel's new flyway and what it means for West Asia

On August 13 it was announced that Israel and the United Arab Emirates would sign a peace agreement, making Abu Dhabi the third Arab nation to reach an official agreement with Israel since Egypt (1978) and Jordan (1994). The reactions were immediate, the United States, the European Union and the UN celebrated the agreement, the Arab League gave a cold and silent approval and Iran accused of a "betrayal of the Palestinians and Islam".

The following weeks revealed that both countries are ready to cement their political and commercial ties: academic [1], scientific [2] and economic [3] collaboration. But the most remarkable event and one that represents a great strategic advance for Israel has been the air corridor through the Arabian Peninsula, which remained banned for more than seven decades.

On September 1, Israel's national airline El Al flight 971 flew over Saudi Arabia on its first non-stop trip between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi in an event highly publicized by the media. On board, an Israeli-American delegation, including many journalists, covered the first flight between the two countries.

There was already a precedent when on March 22, 2018, Air India Flight 139 crossed Saudi airspace on its route between New Delhi and Tel Aviv, marking the first time that an aircraft bound for Israel had flown over the Arabian Peninsula. This was yet another indication of the rapprochement between Israel and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, but there were no further developments until a few weeks ago.

Now both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain [4] have announced that they will open their airspace to all countries in the world, a subtle way of saying “to Israel”.

The new air corridor over the Arabian peninsula (Image by Haaretz)

Previously flights between Israel and East Asia had to fly over the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea thus increasing travel hours, fuel needed and ticket costs. Now, the new route over the Peninsula will shorten flights by up to 3 hours.

The new commercial opportunities and the upcoming signing of the Israeli-Emirati peace treaty on September 15 are only the tip of the iceberg of a deeper phenomenon that will define the geopolitical future of the region; the open rapprochement between Israel and the Arab states of the Gulf to counter the influence of Iran.

The destabilization of the region after the Arab Spring gave Iran an opportunity to extend its area of influence along the fertile crescent and in the south of the Arabian Peninsula. Groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have managed to control vast territories in both countries, becoming even more influential than the states where they are located.

The clashes on Israel's northern border and the attacks from Yemen towards Saudi Arabia have been the most significant and alarming events regarding the military capacity of Iran's allies. The warlike actions from this new arc of Iranian-Shia influence are perceived by Israel and the Sunni Arab nations as a direct threat to their interests, or even existential in the Israeli case.

The new geopolitics of the region

The new commercial opportunities and the upcoming signing of the Israeli-Emirati peace treaty on September 15 are only the tip of the iceberg of a deeper phenomenon that will define the geopolitical future of the region; the open rapprochement between Israel and the Arab states of the Gulf to counter the influence of Iran.

The destabilization of the region after the Arab Spring gave Iran an opportunity to extend its area of influence along the fertile crescent and in the south of the Arabian Peninsula. Groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have managed to control vast territories in both countries, becoming even more influential than the states where they are located. The clashes on Israel's northern border and the attacks from Yemen towards Saudi Arabia have been the most significant and alarming events regarding the military capacity of Iran's allies. The warlike actions from this new arc of Iranian-Shia influence are perceived by Israel and the Sunni Arab nations as a direct threat to their interests, or even existential in the Israeli case.

The "arc" of Iranian influence. (Picture by Deutsche Welle)

With this, an Arab-Israeli cooperation began to emerge mainly in intelligence and information sharing sectors. Israel represents the best ally to face this new geopolitical dynamic, with one of the best-trained armies in the world and a vast intelligence sector that has already had experience in confronting the Iranian advance in the region.

This has been at the cost of the Palestinian issue as, while the position of most Arab states is not to recognize Israel until a Palestinian state is created, the Arab League's recent rejection of a Palestinian resolution condemning the Israeli-Emirati peace agreement delivers an important message: The Palestinian cause has been relegated to the background.

Increasingly and more openly, Arab countries are publicly approaching Israel Bahrain has announced that it will sign peace with Israel together with the UAE and there are rumors that Oman or Sudan will recognize Israel although it is still too early to make any statements forceful. The trend is clear, the Arab world has more important issues to resolve such as internal stability and the growing influence of non-Arab states in the region such as Iran and Turkey.

As preparations continue in Washington DC for the signing of the tripartite peace treaty, it would be wise for the Palestinian leadership to start rethinking their diplomatic strategy as they risk being left behind as the Arab nations move forward without them.