The four political variants in the Palestinian elections

Introduction

Through this article we intend to explain some of the most important problems that the possible internal elections in Palestine, the atomization of power and the possibilities of bringing about a change in the current Palestinian leadership, are going through, internally. The most significant confrontation for the last 15 years has been between Fatah and Hamas, who have transformed into individual governments with weak opposition in the two autonomous Palestinian territories; Gaza and parts of the West Bank (Judea and Samaria or the West Bank, depending on the reader).

The president of the Palestinian National Authority, Abu Mazen, at the 67th session of the UN General Assembly. TIMOTHY A. CLARY AFP.

The main thing in these cases, beyond just holding power, is to weaken the opponent through suitable alliances. There are factions of Fatah who want to remove Abu Mazen from power. However, and added to the above, what may occur later could dangerously lead to a new pitched war between the main Palestinian clans, which pushes them back into a civil confrontation, making them retreat, divide and weaken more in the face of their self-determination interests. .

At the time of writing this article, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) announced the suspension of the Palestinian elections, based on excuses, according to the Islamist group Hamas and compiled by the Arab media Al Jazeera on April 30 [1\ ], but the result of not allowing the parliamentarians at the end of the month could lead to confrontations or a greater schism in the relations between Palestinian political forces as I would mention in an article by Professor Hillel Frisch of Bar Ilan University compiled by the Begin Center – Sadat for strategic studies [2].

It should also be considered that the international community has relegated the Palestinian issue due to the geopolitical circumstances of its immediate environment; the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya, the Lebanese crisis, the Iraqi instability and the Iranian situation, to mention a few topics. In the meantime, and using as a basis the article published by the Think Tank Al Monitor on April 22 entitled "A story of two elections: Netanyahu, Abbas face the abyss" where it mentions these political forces that are entering into a clear confrontation to hold power in the Palestinian territories.

Mention will also be made of a third force that is not internal but external, but direct, which is the Israeli position as directly involved in the Palestinian situation. There is no way for him to disassociate himself because the interlocutor for eventual negotiations in the process of resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will emerge from here.

Mahmoud Abbas and political attrition

Source: Shafaqna

The octogenarian Palestinian leader came to the scene in a significant way after the death of the emblematic Yasser Arafat in 2004. Since then, Abbas has assumed with international consent the place that the "Rais" left vacant, and they thought that with a conciliatory speech he would obtain an easier route to the Palestinian statehood process or at least an improvement in the technically deadlocked political situation since Oslo.

With the arrival of Mazen, a return to the negotiating table with the Israelis and support from the Arab and Muslim world for Palestinian interests was expected; however, after the failed 2006 elections, it has declined, with accusations of corruption and nepotism [3] that have hit its image and have increasingly caused a pronounced debacle that weighs on the Palestinian Authority, but on everything in the image of the Fatah party that gives rise to two political factions of the party that could bring about a turn in the Palestinian situation and in the talks with Israel.

A clear risk that could be capitalized on Abbas in a short time is that soon, for reasons of his age or nature, he will have to put aside his position of power and there is no clarity about an "heir" who will preserve the status quo such and how it is at the moment.

Fatah lists “Freedom”

Jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti. (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

This list is headed by Nasser al-Kidwa who is the nephew of the late Yasser Arafat and who has been involved in Palestinian politics for years, serving as the representative of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to the United Nations from 1991 to in 2005, having among its political "victories" the opinion of the advisory opinion of illegality by the International Court of Justice against the separation fence between Israel and some Palestinian territories for being built in some parts within the so-called green line [ 4]

Al-Kidwa has also held various international posts, including being the UN Secretary General's special envoy to Afghanistan; and the envoy of the Arab League to Syria, as well as its special envoy to Libyan territory. For years he was politically close to Mazen, but due to great differences he decided to form a "separate house" and form this political list with the explicit leadership of another figure from the Palestinian cause who is highly questioned about his participation in terrorist acts. Specifically, Marwan Barghouti, who is imprisoned in Israel accused of five life sentences for terrorism that would keep him in prison, for which reason his "anointed" to lead the movements is currently his wife Fadwa Barghouti.

Before mentioning the reports from Fadwa, it is important to note that Marwan, despite being a prisoner, has handled issues of Palestinian interest, including attacks against Israeli targets, although at the moment his position is less violently belligerent.

Marwan belongs to one of the most influential clans in the Palestinian territories, the Barghouti clan, which also includes Mustafa Barghouti, former candidate for the Palestinian presidency in 2005 and Omar Barghouti, founder of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions against Israel (BDS) movement, a movement further noted by Omar's own statements of denying the right to the existence of a Jewish state in any part of “historic Palestine”.

Marwan belongs to and founded the paramilitary wing of Al Fatah called "Tanzim" that came to compete against the Palestinian police and initially fight against the influence of Hamas, mainly in the West Bank. The Palestinian paramilitary group is considered by Israel and the United States for its actions as terrorists.

In 2004 he would have proposed his name to be a candidate for the Palestinian presidency, in the end he gave up the option to avoid the division of this territory. In 2006, seeing the weakness of the Palestinian forces after their division due to the rise of Hamas to power, from prison he managed to publish the "Document of National Reconciliation of the Prisoners" where, together with members of Hamas, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Islamic Jihad and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine propose a coalition for the Palestinian Legislative Council and adhere to the proposal of "Two States for two peoples", based on the pre-war armistice lines Arab-Israeli from 1967.

Despite his warmongering character that landed him in prison, in recent years Barghouti has opted for a nonviolent struggle against Israel, so much so that in 2014 he asked the Palestinian National Authority to work to put an end to the so-called "Intifada of Israel." knives” and use of international mechanisms to put pressure on Israel instead of violence. This has led to making him a modern icon of Palestinian struggle even among international figures still naming him, indeed hyperbolically, as the Palestinian Mandela [5]

It is for all of the aforementioned that for the legislative elections the representative of the Barghouti clan is his wife Fadwa, who is a lawyer, was a member of Fatah's revolutionary council and leads the Association of Women's Social Work Committees ([AWCSW](http: http://www.awcsw.org/en)).

Fadwa has advocated for the release of her husband, arguing that it would be an important sign of peace on the part of Israel towards the Palestinians, as evidenced by various media outlets, including the English newspaper The Independent in 2011 [6 ]. This combination between Al-Kidwa and Barghouti could eventually promote an alliance with Palestinian Hamas in a unity government that would deal a harsh setback to Abbas's political actions and his relationship with Israel, as well as eventually escalate, so the The choice of this political list could motivate the current president Mazen to postpone the elections until reaching a consensus and demobilizing this level of "separatism".

Fatah lists “The Future”

Mohamed Dahlan, photo by Arab Observer

If everything mentioned above between new political alliances and changes in the internal leadership augured a difficult path for Fatah in its intentions to call elections according to its own interests, it leads to the possibility of a greater schism that pushes Hamas to ally itself with part of the opposition leadership to Mazen. This other political force also makes him think about why he receives external support from an old house acquaintance, Mohammed Dahlan, who has economic support from the Gulf countries and Egypt as a future replacement for President Abbas.

In the case of this list, Samir al-Mashharawy and Sari Nusseibeh head the leadership. The first is the leader of the Fatah faction in the Gaza Strip, who has held demonstrations of power in the coastal enclave in favor of the Palestinian faction, such as the one that occurred in [April](https://www.europapress.es /international/news-ornext-strongmen-fata-gaza-rejects-haniyeh-request-not-to-display-weapons-public-20060401171050.html) of 2006.

For his part, Nusseibeh has been a professor of Islamic philosophy at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, since 1995 he is rector of the Al Quds Open University and has been a Palestinian representative in Jerusalem. Sari Nusseibeh has exercised a strong activism for reconciliation between Arabs and Israelis and promoted the coexistence of both peoples, although he was highly criticized at the time for advocating the renunciation of the Palestinian right of return as a way to end the conflict. Together with the late Israeli activist Amos Oz, he was awarded the International Prize of Catalonia, which is awarded for the promotion of culture, science, economy, among others \ [7 ]

Both leaders backed by Dahlan would have more evident international support than currently exists for Hamas' management of the Gaza enclave and less flawed than the "Freedom" list of other opponents of Mazen who could be closer to unity. Palestinian belligerent.

The political muscle that Mohammed Dahlan has has led to movements within the Palestinian elections and last January Azzam Al-Ahmad, a member of the Fatah Central Committee, announced that the Palestinian National Authority would not allow access to the exiled Dahlan for not having a “clean record”, according to the Lebanese newspaper Al Manar of the Islamist group Hezbollah [8].

The three lists linked to Fatah not only show weakness, but also give rise to the impossibility of achieving a strong Palestinian unity government between moderate positions and those dependent on the Islamist muscle that demobilize positions, although under current conditions they will hardly renounce a position of power that has generated profits in Gaza and adds points in the West Bank, which leads us to see Hamas's purposes in this parliamentary and eventually presidential political struggle.

Jerusalem our promise

In this case, the fourth leg of the table in the political differences between Palestinians is the Hamas list that "vindicates" the Palestinian claim to the city of Jerusalem, leading to put this name as a symbolic form of the fight they intend to undertake, maintaining a belligerent position against Israel.

It is headed by Khalil Ibrahim Al-Hayya (Abu Osama) who has held various positions in Palestinian student and worker unions in the Gaza Strip, and was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in 2006. He played a key role in the negotiation of a ceasefire with Israel during the 2014 war in Gaza. Due to the force that Hamas currently plays within Palestinian public opinion, Mazen's idea of not wanting to call elections is reinforced, despite the fact that a survey carried out the previous December placed Al Fatah at the top of voting intentions, but not the security of a firm and effective coalition.

Israel and United States paper

As mentioned at the beginning of the article, Israel and the United States would be a centrifugal force with interests and motivations within the Palestinian elections. For Israel, as for Mazen, it is opportune that the Islamist groups do not win the elections, for this reason, they have made demonstrations between the lines to prevent Hamas from acquiring greater power.

In fact, Israel has put pressure on members of the Islamic Resistance Group in the West Bank to refrain from participating in the electoral process. In reality, some were detained by Israel and the Israeli intelligence service (Shin Bet) would have required them to erase their names. lists of candidates and not to proselytize politically in favor of his group, as reported by Elior Levy to the Israeli outlet YNet on the previous April 18 [9].

The foregoing would also have been one more of the motivations for the rocket attacks that since the previous May 10 had been launched by Islamist groups from Gaza against Israeli regions to warn the Jerusalem government not to get involved in the Palestinian electoral situation.

For its part, the United States has had a lukewarm response and has said on April 1 that it is a purely Palestinian issue in which they would not get directly involved, and the truth is that in these first 100 days of Joe Biden's government its position regarding the Middle East is only taking slight steps that for the moment leave more doubts than answers.

Photo: PSR

The constant postponement of electoral processes in the Palestinian territories continues to show the weakness that exists to reach a strong coalition that can eventually raise its voice for more favorable conditions for the Palestinians. The environment in which they are currently living is not mentioned, but there is no doubt that the geopolitical movements that have been outlined for several years have been slightly "despalestinizing" the agenda of the countries involved in the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis and They do not have a decisive political muscle.

Everything indicates that there is Abu Mazen for a while and that it will be nature that will force the change in leadership and when this happens a new pitched war will be opened on all internal and external fronts to get to designate the heir to the throne of the Mukata Palestine. Other external actors that have interests in the subject are not mentioned; Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and that will be pending for future analysis articles on the state of the situation, although an [article] was published last February on the ambiguity of Arab support for the Palestinian cause (https:/ /wsimag.com/en/economics-and-politics/64813-ambiguous-arab-support-for-the-Palestinian-cause) in Wall Street International Magazine that you can read about it.