A peace agreement is reached for the territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan

What will happen now?

Even in the context of a health crisis, conflicts still continue to occur. In a remote region, but of the utmost importance, such as the South Caucasus, where the States of Armenia and Azerbaijan are located. In these States, various periodic confrontations have been brewing over the territorial conflict that they have maintained for three decades over the area commonly known as Nagorno-Karabakh.

“The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, the Armenian Armed Forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.”[1]

These tensions were raised again this year and flooded social networks. The variant is that now the conflict has been modernized with the presence of drones. However, the number of victims continued to increase, as well as uncertainty.

In this sense, as has happened before, a couple of weeks ago another ceasefire was achieved presented by Russian mediation, however, this did not guarantee a permanent solution, until now.

“A new era appears in the Caucasus”[2] was how the president of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, defined the current situation in the region.

Almost three decades since the tensions began and the conflict could finally have a solution, although will it be final?

A peace agreement was signed that entered into force on Tuesday, November 10, between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia. In it it was established that Azerbaijan will keep the Nagorno Karabagh area, Armenia withdraws and Russia will act as a mediator between the borders.

As it happens in International Relations, sometimes everyone wants to win, although sometimes it happens that some win and others lose, so what will happen now after this surprising Peace Agreement? How will this resolution influence the countries involved?

Current situation (The resolution of the conflict)

In July of this year tensions were renewed again with a violation of the ceasefire: tanks were destroyed, helicopters were shot down and drones were incorporated to attack.

In this regard, the Armenian government declared martial law and a total military mobilization[3]. Likewise, the defense minister reported the death of more than 550 Armenians, in addition to the destruction of 22 armored vehicles, 18 drones and 14 Armenian air defense systems.[4]

For his part, the president of Azerbaijan ordered a large-scale counter-offensive operation in response to the Armenian military attacks. Similarly, the unrecognized president of Nagorno Karabagh, Arayik Harutyunyan, confirmed that they lost some positions to Azeri forces.[5]

The position of some of the countries of the international community were similar when requesting a ceasefire, such was the case of the United States and France who invited both parties to cease hostilities. Iran offered to mediate the situation in peace talks. Russia demanded an immediate ceasefire and the start of a dialogue and finally, a more direct position came from the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who offered his support to Azerbaijan.

On October 9, another ceasefire was agreed upon with the mediation of Russia. However, Azerbaijan continued to advance towards its goal. Subsequently, on November 8, the Armenians lost territory and Azeri forces took Shusha[6] . Also, the northern highway was filled with refugees from Khankendi, but the Azerbaijani troops did not show any aggression towards the refugees.[7]

The capture of the city of Shusha was characterized as the key moment of the conflict since it was considered a great advance for Azerbaijan and a possible defeat for Armenia.

"This is the main moment of the war. It can be said that the second Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh war ended with the complete victory of Azerbaijan. If the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gives the order to withdraw his troops from the Nagorno-Karabakh region, in which they will soon be defeated, military operations will stop and peace negotiations will begin, otherwise the war may turn into a final blow to the surrounded Armenian troops, betrayed by fear by their prime minister ".[8]

After several weeks of confrontation and with an uncertain end, what had been expected for a long time was surprisingly achieved, the signing of a Peace Agreement that entered into force on November 10.

In the Agreement it was established that Azerbaijan will keep the Nagorno Karabagh area. Armenia has agreed to withdraw from several adjacent areas in the coming weeks and to mediate the situation, Russia will deploy peacekeepers to patrol the borders. Likewise, the Agreement includes the exchange of prisoners, as well as the economic and transport contacts will be unblocked.[9]

On the Agreement, the Armenian leader of Nagorno Karabakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, explained that the ceasefire was inevitable after the loss of the second largest city of Karabakh, Shusha. “There was fighting on the outskirts of Karabakh's main city, Stepnaker, and if the conflict had continued, all of Karabakh would have been lost. We could have suffered more losses."[10]

On his side, the situation of Armenia is the most worrying, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, pointed out that the agreement was incredibly painful for him and his people.

Likewise, discontent was generated by the Armenians who demonstrated in the capital, Yerevan and stormed the parliament looting the offices of the prime minister while chanting the phrase: "We will not surrender".[11]

"This turning point became a stain on the reputation of Nikol Pashinyan, who will surely be overthrown in the coming days. And this is a glorious victory for Azerbaijan."[[12]](# _ftn12)

Source: AzerNews.

Regarding civil society, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that Armenians can remain safe on the territory of Azerbaijan.

“Azerbaijan with its ideology of multiculturalism is a modern, multinational and multi-denominational country, in which about 30,000 Armenians now live and where all peoples are under the protection of a strong state.”[**[13]* ](#_ftn13)*

Finally, as of November 10, with the Agreement, this was how the territory was defined:

Source: Azerbaijani Maps.

What will happen now?

This conflict in the Caucasus has had periodic confrontations and each one has had its respective mediation. This case was not the exception, since Russia once again starred in the scene, acting as the essential element to bring temporary peace to both parties. However, the tensions resumed since there was no real settlement, until now. In which it was demonstrated that diplomacy is not enough in all cases.

The end of this war (but not the conflict) has been very counterproductive for Armenia, from its civil society to its government. Immediately after the announcement of the signing of the capitulation, thousands of protesters in Yerevan called for the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Who less than a year ago was seen as a reformer who could lead Armenia out of its immovable political class linked to the collapse of the USSR, is now seen as a weak character whose wrong measures have been a major setback for Armenia and a disaster for Artsakh. . [14] Everything seems to indicate that it is the end of Pashinyan's political career.

Map showing the pacification plans of the region.

For their part, Azerbaijan and Turkey have undoubtedly been the big winners in this conflict. Even though Baku has not been able to establish its control over the entire disputed region, it has managed to do so over the most strategic areas, thus leaving a Republic of Artsakh in an extremely weak geostrategic situation and even more dependent on external forces, primarily Russia.

One of the points of the ceasefire is the creation of a highway connecting Azerbaijan with its enclave of Nakhchivan through the Armenian province of Syunik. According to what has been established, it will be under the control of Russian military personnel for peacekeeping. If this is confirmed, there will be a corridor that will directly connect Baku with Turkey, skipping the Armenian territory.

For the Republic of Artsakh, Russian troops represent practically the only thing that will separate it from the Azeri army. Although the northern area of the region will remain de facto under Armenian control, the loss of the cities of Shushi, Hadrut and the entire region to the south of these represents a significant weakening.

The capital, Stepanakert, will be only a couple of kilometers from the new ceasefire line. The Armenian authorities in Artsakh have been left in a very unfavorable situation from a military point of view.

For now, the plans indicate that the points established between Moscow, Baku and Yerevan will have a duration of 5 years. It is difficult to know if the conflict will freeze again for another long period of time as is the case with others in the former Soviet space or if finally, after that time, the parties will be able to find a peaceful resolution.

By now Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has achieved a great victory that will undoubtedly help his popularity ratings and reinforce his 18-year rule inherited from his father. Likewise, the position of his country has been advantaged by weakening Armenia and creating a land connection with its biggest ally, Turkey. Although still dependent on oil, the economic prospects between Baku and Ankara will be very positive in the future.

Armenia and Artsakh, on the other hand, will find themselves in a much more unfavorable picture. This latest round of conflict has brought to light the difference in power between its military forces and those of Azerbaijan, the country has been left behind and surpassed.

The country will become much more dependent on Russia, since although the intervention that many expected did not occur, the country will continue to act as an ally of Armenia as it has for 200 years, mainly to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus, even more so with Turkey increasing its own influence and presence in the region.

The peacekeeping troops in Karabakh will be both Russian and Turkish, this conflict has opened the door to a game of balance of power between the two nations in the Caucasus rather than dominance. Azerbaijan will continue to increase its ties and cooperation with Turkey and Armenia will become more dependent on Russia for its security and foreign trade.