What can Latin America expect with Biden's victory?

On November 3, 2020, the Democratic candidate for president Joe Biden, after a political career that began with the position of senator in Delaware in which he held for 36 years, followed by the vice presidency during the term of Barack Obama , managed to win the presidency of the United States of America for the period 2021-2024 against Donald Trump, after four days of the vote count where he exceeded 270 delegates in the Electoral College [1].

For his part, the Republican candidate appealed to the legitimacy of the votes cast, arguing that the postal mail, through which the votes were carried out, was an excellent way to implement "illegal" votes [2] even before voting began, so when he found out about the electoral results he did not hesitate to affirm that fraud and irregularities had been committed in the voting process.

Biden will take office as president from January 20, 2021 at noon in accordance with the 20th amendment to his Constitution made in 1933 during the Roosevelt period [3] , if there were no legal inconvenience. This is how the question arises: What can Latin America expect from Biden? How will the relationship with the new US president be? What changes will be made in foreign policy? Will the immigration situation change?

After the relationship of the United States with Latin America during the mandate of Donald J. Trump, which in the early years had shown apathy and disinterest, it gained strength in immigration matters, especially with Mexico, by wanting to build the wall to avoid the massive wave of migrants from Central America during 2019 that crossed the southern border. Among the different immigration policies granted by the Trump government, it is possible to rescue the applications for denied H-1B visas for highly qualified workers that had negative effects on companies such as Wal-Mart and Microsoft with 12% of applications denied [4].

As for Mexico, the agreements of the North American Free Trade Agreement – currently a Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada – were renegotiated without losing sight of the migration issue by including a section on the control of migration flows to the north, The same that generally originated in Central America, in exchange for the respective cancellation of the threat regarding the increase in tariffs.

Source: Eric Haynes.

Biden's promises: New relationship with Latin America?

Biden's intentions during his electoral campaign have been clear regarding multilateralism, increasing foreign relations is necessary for international cooperation with Central American countries considering a progressive approach that seeks to offer support to the countries necessary to increase the quality of life in the internal situation through investments and attacking the problem at its source in opposition to the hostile immigration policies of the previous administration.

The position on the question of the wall on the United States-Mexico border, the Democratic candidate affirms that it is not within the political agenda to continue with the project, it even aims to put an end to it and introduce public policies that include the opening of spaces for legal immigration, while in the illegal sphere, a citizenship route is planned for people who have an undocumented status [5].

In this immigration logic, Biden proposes, through his plan for the first 100 days in office, to end the aggressive policies regarding the detention of migrants for minor transgressions, in addition to the raids on Hispanic centers within the national territory and restore some programs for the benefit of the so-called “dreamers”. Particularly, one of the biggest promises within his candidacy was to restore what was produced by Trump regarding political asylum permits and denied visas [6].

Financial issue: Will support be provided?

The economic recovery in the United States after the pandemic will be of great importance and was one of Biden's campaign proposals because since the epidemic began, the North American economy has declined to a great extent, consequently the flow of trade with Latin America and The Caribbean was affected by a reduction of 26% when it fell from 369.4 billion dollars in 2019 to 292.8 billion dollars in 2020 according to the latest ECLAC report [7].

However, various programs have been carried out regarding the Latin American situation, among them is "America grows", which was carried out during the mandate of Donald Trump and had as its objective the investment in digital infrastructure of the private sector in Latin America and the Caribbean, following the logic of a region disputed by rising powers such as China and Russia [8]. This is how, in support of the economic, political and social growth of America, the United States grants this multilateral cooperation framework.

However, the next US president considers these public policies insufficient to satisfy the needs of Central America. His plan consists of using the funds that have previously been allocated to stop immigration through public and private investment within Latin American countries, in order to reverse the migration process from the origin, specifically in countries like El Salvador, Venezuela, Guatemala and Honduras.

Source: Gayatri Malhotra.

Environmental Concern: The Change to Energy Policies

The environment is an issue that has gained relevance in recent decades on the international scene. Biden during the presidential debates, raised his concern about the effects of climate change on the US economy by proposing an action plan based on two million dollars through which he seeks to renew the national infrastructure and the creation of clean economies for the production of jobs [9] that will impact the Latin American situation.

On the other hand, the return of the United States to the Paris Agreement is one of the fundamental points that drive the environmental policy of the Democrat, after leaving the country in said agreement. In this regard, the reincorporation of the United States and compliance with the agreement would benefit some parts of Latin America, specifically Peru, since it has been one of the countries most affected by global warming by consuming fresh water from almandine glaciers that are in the process of defrost.

The new US renewable energy agenda greatly affects Latin America. In Brazil, particularly, Bolsonaro is in a hostile position to a certain extent in the face of Biden's victory since he had a close relationship with President Trump and even rejected some economic support that had been proposed around the halt to deforestation in the Amazon, considering them as threats given the idea that, if these were not accepted, they would have to face the economic consequences [10].

Regarding Mexico, the current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has expressed his disagreement with the change in energy and labor policies of the new North American administration because it could affect international agreements regarding the commitment to fossil fuels and of coal, since economic activity would consequently decrease in a direction contrary to Mexican interests. Regarding the T-MEC, Biden has assured that he will closely monitor compliance with the agreements in labor matters and in case of infraction he will be forced to implement measures that disagree with what was agreed [11].

The stress points

Venezuela and Cuba are countries that in recent history have had some disagreements with the United States. In the first case, Biden and Trump agree that the Venezuelan situation of dictatorship represents a great challenge to overcome in Latin America, an issue that is criticized by Maduro when he affirms that the current state of Venezuela is due to the US blockade.

Biden's position on Venezuela is apparently similar to that of the Republican candidate. Both consider Maduro a dictator, however, they differ in the form of action; Biden plans a dialogue on international cooperation in which an agreement is reached to optimize the quality of life of Venezuelan citizens, unlike the relationship of tensions that existed with Donald Trump in which military intervention was not ruled out [12].

Secondly, during the presidency of Barack Obama, the Democrat Biden served as vice president and kept Cuban-American relations in a peaceful line, aspects that were lost during Trump's hostile mandate and that today are put on the table for the return to accessible policies with the island [13].