Tensions in NATO: Greece and Türkiye dispute the Mediterranean

Tensions between Greece and Turkey have worsened considerably in recent months after Turkish authorities accused Athens of violating the human rights of migrants arriving on its shores and even abandoning them in the Mediterranean to their fate.

In a [televised interview] (https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/08/20/kyriakos-mitsotakis-prime-minister-of-greece-migrants-turkey-tensions-aman.cnn), Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis has claimed that his country has been the victim of a fake news campaign. Indeed, Turkey, for years, has exerted pressure on the European Union (E.U.) using the arrival of migrants in Europe as an advantage in the negotiations that it initiates with the organization.

In fact, at the beginning of March 2020, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the possibility of millions of migrants going to the Schengen territory. This statement was clearly intended to remind Brussels of what is at stake.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis publicly stated that Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), has not served as an ally for Greece and the European Union, on the contrary, it has become a human trafficker that has been in charge of carrying carry out the massive and coordinated mobilization of migrants towards their territory. [1]

However, the issue of migration is only one edge of the complex conflict of interests between Brussels, Greece and Turkey. Gas reserves located in the Mediterranean have also been a catalyst for increasingly sharp tensions between Ankara and Athens.

Relations between the two countries have gone to the bottom since last January, when Greece, Israel and Cyprus sign an agreement in which the three countries agree to build a pipeline that starts from Greek territory, crosses the island of Cyprus and ends in Israel.

The Israeli PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, was satisfied with the results of such negotiations and "before leaving the Greek capital, […] said that three countries have established 'an alliance of great importance' which will strengthen regional stability and it will turn Israel into 'an energy powerhouse.'" [2] However, it is quite debatable that an energy cooperation alliance, which excludes Turkey, much less enjoys its support, would be able to guarantee stability in the Mediterranean.

Months later, on August 6, Greece signs an agreement in which the mutually agreed limits of the Exclusive Economic Zones of Greece and Egypt are set. It should be noted that this agreement is pivotal for the interests of Greece and the European Union. For its part, the Greek country needs to ensure the viability of the construction of the gas pipeline agreed with Cyprus and Israel, and, on the other hand, the EU. Its objective is to guarantee energy security through the diversification of distributors.

Graph 1. Map of the agreed maritime boundaries between Greece and Egypt

This map shows the area secured by the agreement between Greece and Egypt. Source: Greek City Times.

However, the claims of Greece, Israel and Cyprus have been categorically rejected by Turkey, a country that has rejected the validity of said pact declaring that it violates the agreement between Ankara and Libya, signed on November 27, 2019, which establishes the maritime boundaries of these two countries. See graph 2.

In addition to this agreement, Turkey and Libya agreed to a military-type cooperation, which grants authorization to the Turkish forces to deploy military elements in the demarcated area if requested by Tripoli. This pact was precisely drawn up in order to prevent any Greek and Israeli pretense of building a gas pipeline in the region. See graph 2. Turkey's motivations are simple: by allowing the implementation of this type of project in the Mediterranean, its geopolitical advantage becomes tenuous.

Turkey's location is privileged since "despite the fact that it lacks its own mineral reserves, it has strategic advantages for energy transit since it is located between Western Asia, Russia and the Caucasus and the great energy market of Europe and the West." [3]

Graph 2. Map of the agreed maritime boundaries between Türkiye and Libya

This map shows the area secured by the agreement between Türkiye and Libya. Source: Selami Ozalp / TRTWorld.

Of course, the signatory parties are aware of the benefits that building a gas pipeline in the Mediterranean implies for their countries. Precisely, "Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz stated that the construction of the EastMed gas pipeline has the advantage of being less susceptible to sabotage [...] because it does not cross many national borders to reach markets." [4]

In response, Turkey sent a vessel, the Oruc Reis, to Mediterranean waters to begin seismic exploration. This vessel was escorted by armed ships, an action that the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and French President Emmanuel Macron strongly condemned.

The Greek executive affirmed that Greece would respond to any attack and declared that the problems between the Ankara government and Greece are not simple disagreements between neighbors, they are a challenge for the European Union. [5] This statement makes Greece's message to Turkey very clear: the intimidation is not only understood as a threat to Greece's sovereignty, the Turkish government is also challenging the European Union.

Despite the fact that Heiko Maas, German foreign minister, tried to mediate the situation between the two countries, Ankara and Athens have not managed to establish an appropriate dialogue to stop military provocations in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Given these circumstances, France has announced the deployment of its naval militia in the region to safeguard peace in the area.

Josep Borrel, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, pointed out on Friday, August 28, that "[the European Union] must walk a fine line between preserving a real space for dialogue and at the same time time to show collective strength in defense of common interests.” \ [6 ] He also announced that due to Turkey's reluctance, the European authorities are forced to discuss possible sanctions at the European Council at the end of September.

Ankara's determination to seize gas reserves has prompted US President Donald Trump to simultaneously organize individual calls with the Turkish president and the Greek PM in order to put an end to the conflict between the NATO members.

However, it is worth mentioning that the US president is not an impartial mediator, since in the event that Turkey obtained control of the gas reserves and invalidated the agreement between Greece and Egypt, one of its most important strategic allies, Israel, would would be greatly harmed.

The United States has established a strong relationship with the Israeli government for decades. Just earlier this year, Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a collaborative plan to violate the sovereignty of the Palestinian people and annex much of their territory.

In 2016, both governments ratified an agreement that ensures the delivery of $3.8 billion to Israel for its military spending. The United States benefits from this arrangement since this amount must be used only for the purchase of US weapons. Added to this background, the North American country has had strong disagreements with Ankara in the past.

In 2019, the interests of both States in Syria conflicted and caused the US president to speak out against any Turkish attempt to attack the Kurdish faction, since this militia is his main ally in the fight against the Islamic State.

Months later, the Turkish executive announced the possibility of closing the United States military air base, located in Incirlik, after the country's Senate formally recognized the persecution and murder of the Armenian population as a genocide perpetrated by the Ottoman Empire.

Thus, Turkey faces a West ready for dialogue, but, if it is not effective, prepared to defend its interests and implement sanctions. It remains for us to ask, to what extent is Turkey willing to disagree with NATO members?

We know without a doubt that historically one of Turkey's long-term goals has been to gain accession to the EU, however, given the possibility of seeing its geopolitical advantages in the region diminished, it is no longer clearly looming. Yes, for this West Asian country, membership in European integration remains one of the most urgent and most important priorities in the field of foreign policy.

Turkey is firm in its conviction to control the gas reserves of the Mediterranean. The Turkish president and his spokespersons continue to make statements that imply the possibility of an armed conflict with Greece. In addition, Ankara has implemented the brinkmanship strategy to navally intimidate Greece, an action that NATO members find particularly worrying. However, for now the most pertinent thing is to observe how the conflict develops in the coming days before issuing any kind of projection.