Dispute for the Arctic: China and Russia against the United States

The current dispute between the United States of America against the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation is not only limited to a trade war, it also encompasses a strategic competition for different regions – including the Arctic. Although the United States could be thought of as a favorite given its hegemony, it has actually been weakening to such a degree that it could lose the battle in the Arctic against Russia and China.

The contemporary system, established after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, has been characterized by the excessive actions of the USA. However, almost thirty years later, its supremacy has already been threatened by the rise of new emerging powers and certain unexpected events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the hegemon has had more limitations than ever. In this regard, Fareed Zakaria, who is a leading author of neoclassical realism, indicates that the world has entered a post-American phase in which two other main players have emerged.

The concern of the United States in the face of the increasing expansion of Russian power is undeniable, but there is a bigger one that challenges even the established world order: "the Red Dragon". It would be both anticipated and uncertain to affirm that any of these last two countries can – individually – impose a new era and place themselves at the top of the international system. However, such a scenario is not very distant if we talk about Sino-Russian cooperation, that [strategic] association (https://sputniknews.lat/20201027/alianza-militar-entre-china-y-rusia-que-pasaria- if-the-two-superpowers-join-forces-1093266157.html) [2] unprecedented that aims to put US unilateralism in check.

The economic, political, military and technological power that Russia and China have developed gives them a fairly strong bargaining power. In such a way that they have expanded their influence in the world through what is known as smart power or intelligent power. This type of power is based on creating a strategy that combines the elements of both hard power and soft power.

While it is true that the European Union (EU) has the support of the United States, its closeness to the two aforementioned powers makes decision-making for the good of European economic integration difficult under pressure from the North American hegemon. However, in the face of facts such as Europe's dependence on Russian gas and heavy Chinese investment in the region, the options are so limited that Russian and Chinese expansion is virtually inevitable.

Climate change, which brings with it severe consequences for all living beings on the planet, paradoxically, creates a unique opportunity in the Arctic: the extraction of strategic resources such as oil and gas, as well as various precious stones such as diamonds and gold; and essential elements (mainly those belonging to the platinum group) used in the manufacture of electronic gadgets. The bilateral relationship between Russia and China seems to benefit from this event, because Russia has an excellent location in the Arctic, being the nation with the largest territory in this area, and China can complement Russia's ambitions by contributing manpower and essential technological resources for extraction.

For the purposes of this article, we will define the Arctic as a giant mass of ice located in the well-known northern hemisphere of planet Earth; It is a geostrategic area with an impact on the world's energy and trade security, but specifically China and Russia. The definition of the Arctic can vary depending on who defines it, for example, while Vladimir Putin points out that this space is an area of traditional Russian interest, since it concentrates all aspects of national security: military, political, economic, technological, environmental and resources; The European Environment Agency (EEA) defines the Arctic as an immense region, which occupies one sixth of the earth's surface with more than 30 million square kilometers and there are 24 time zones.

In International Relations, especially in its framework of theoretical development, approaches to geopolitics are presented, an area and a key concept of this discipline that Rudolf Kjellén defined as "[the influence of geographical factors, in the broadest sense of the word, in political development in the life of States and peoples] (https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/39839/1/la%20geopolitica%20como%20ciencia%20del%20estdo%20el%20mundo%20del%20general %20Haushoher.pdf)”. In relation to this, Alfred T. Mahan developed the Theory of Sea Power in 1890, which earned him to become one of the world's greatest geopolitical strategists and the person responsible for the success of the United States' maritime hegemony.

The surface of planet Earth is made up mostly of water, it is estimated that 71% is covered by this liquid, while the remaining 20% is continental mass. This shows that the sea is a vital means of transport and communication, as well as a great geopolitical instrument. Historically, it has been shown that the great powers of the past (Spain, Holland, France, Portugal and England) played a decisive role in this environment, and that geography influences the destiny of nations.

This theory (that of sea power) is of great importance to understand the geopolitics of the Arctic, although it is true that air power has an enormous advantage over land power and sea power, the geographical conditions of the Arctic force it to be retaken. the strategic thought of the sea, are the new maritime routes and the way in which the resources are extracted the conditions of the transport. For Mahan, the proper use of maritime spaces was reflected in establishing exploration and colonization routes for other peoples, today, it would be more to establish maritime routes and control of territories rich in resources.

Russia: The Arctic Power

When we use the adjective arctic in a country, a region or an animal, we refer to any of these belonging to the North Pole or that it is related to this space with its territories. Having said this, we understand that there are six countries that declare themselves as 'Arctic nations' and claim sovereignty in that region: Russia, the United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland and Norway. Of all these nations, it is the Russian Federation that encompasses the largest part of the Arctic region due to its area covering eastern Europe and the entire northern region of Asia.

Source: France 24

From ancient times to the present, Russia continues to have a large presence in the Arctic, a fact that justifies claiming greater sovereignty over this geographical space, but even more important is that this historical bond of being a neighboring nation with the already mentioned region, allows you to develop a fairly complete strategic thinking to function fully in the North Pole.

Although Russia has not yet established itself as a world power, its development in sectors that are strategic by nature allow it to have significant influence in its region. It fulfills its role as a regional power by having key factors: military and technological development, as well as scientific. These characteristics expand the negotiation possibilities that allow it to establish itself in geographical areas that are strategic for its development and national security, in order to project itself as a regional and world power.

Could it be that, with the evolution of climate change and its catastrophic effects on the Arctic, a new opportunity was created for the Eurasian powers to begin a fight for majority control of this geostrategic area? That remains to be seen, but for now, what we do know is that Russia is already a superpower, especially in the Arctic, due to the elements it has, thus gaining a great advantage over any other nation, even better benefits its strategic relationship with the People's Republic of China.

Because of its proximity to the Arctic, Russia has had plenty of time to develop through its contemporary history its Arctic policy, which reflects very well its strategic interests in that region. Therefore, there is no doubt that a great success that the government of Vladimir Putin had was to prepare in advance and thus be able to count on the means and strategies necessary to take advantage in the northern polar territory. Russia is still reaping achievements that started from the Soviet era, such a policy is one of these achievements.

The beginning of the planning and development of Russian Arctic policy dates back to the last century. The attempted invasion of Russia by the United States in 1918 under the mission known as the 'Polar Bear Expedition' exhibited the great vulnerability that Russia was under before an attack that came from the North Pole. Once the USSR was established and under Stalin's dictatorship, an Arctic policy was designed and established by decree in 1931, its objective was none other than to initiate and promote development in northern Siberia.

The USSR was a power, which is why it had the resources to carry out the necessary investigations to reach the conclusion that in that inhospitable region lay essential wealth to complete the mission of achieving greatness in the Soviet bloc. This is how projects were started that cost many lives, despite this the objective was to finish the construction and development of canals, roads and the installation of some military bases, and as it was achieved a feeling of greatness and national pride was transmitted.

Likewise, the Arctic as a strategic region in the Cold War was of great importance due to the nuclear tension that existed at that time and because of the proximity between the two powers in the North, the Bering Strait represented not only the limit, but a small natural border in which any decision that entailed the invasion of one country to another, would detonate the end of the world.

At the end of the 20th century and after the disappearance of the USSR, on August 9, 1999, Vladimir Putin is assigned as acting prime minister, thus the development of Russia would change to go up. Following the Russian geographical tradition and demonstrating once again the importance of the Arctic for Putin, on June 14, 2001, the Principles of the Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic were approved. This document clarifies that all the activities carried out by said nation will be exclusively for the sake of its defense and national security, making these activities a priority matter.

After eight years, the document entitled: “Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic up to the year 2020 and with a further perspective” was published. Said strategy was a guide that would mark the route that the Russian nation should follow in the period 2009-2020.

In 2013 the last update of the Arctic policy would arrive, this after its review and subsequent approval by President Putin towards the Russian Arctic Development Strategy and National Security Provision. This is not the most important because it is the last, but because significant changes emanate from this document that allow us to understand, for example, the strategic cooperation relationship between Russia and China.

The establishment of this bilateral relationship in the Arctic has as its objective the promotion of foreign relations that favor the environment, the natives and indigenous people of the Arctic region and Russia, which, although it is a regional power, still does not have the technology and resources necessary to explore the North Pole region, with this argument he justifies the need to attract and above all strengthen economic, techno-scientific and military relations with the People's Republic of China that can favor the necessary conditions to carry out the Russian dream.

Unfortunately, the melting of the Arctic is an inevitable fact and therefore it is expected that humanity will witness the last summer ice in the year 2036, however, the race for Arctic resources has already begun; In this way, icebreaker fleets are essential tools that will serve to extract resources as long as the Arctic ice continues to persist. Despite its technological limitations, Russia has a crushing advantage over any other Arctic nation; It has nothing more and nothing less than a fleet of forty icebreakers, four of which are heavy icebreakers that operate year-round in moderate multi-year ice; 31 are medium and operate year-round in thick first-year ice and 16 are light and operate only in summer and fall in medium-thick first-year ice; while the United States has only one icebreaking fleet, thus putting it at a huge disadvantage against the Eurasian giant.

China: a semi-arctic country

Since ancient times, the People's Republic of China has had the objective of expanding its trade routes to other strategic places outside its natural zone of influence, such as Southeast Asia.

In the first place, it is necessary to understand that the importance of maritime traffic for China is considered a matter of National Security, since more than 60% of its trade is mobilized by sea, taking into account that the commodities most traveled by means of its maritime routes (Strait of Malacca) are energy, mostly oil.

As a result of the great concern of the Chinese government and following the teachings of the Qing Empire, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, decided to reactivate the well-known Silk Road, but with strategic and geopolitical overtones. It was not only the reactivation of the land route, but the same mentioned vision promoted the development of two more Routes: the Maritime Silk Road of the XXI Century and the Polar Silk Road. Both branches of the route have geostrategic, military and expansionist overtones in order to project a new China suited to its needs and geopolitical ambitions in a context that is constantly changing. In addition, these routes are important in the development of the Asian country, however, this time we will focus on analyzing the Polar Silk Road.

"China published its own Arctic strategy in January 2018. It declared itself a 'near-Arctic' state and outlined a Polar Silk Road economic plan." However, Chinese interest in this strategic pivot became more noticeable after «the People's Republic of China became an observer nation in the Arctic Council in 2013. Its interest in the Arctic region is clear: access to the natural resources of the Arctic and use of the Northern Route, working together to improve its image as a great power. The New York Times reported in May 2019 that China is investing heavily in projects in almost all Arctic countries».

The interpretations of the objectives of the current Xi Jinping government may vary, however, there are situations and characteristics of the nation that must be considered when analyzing the reason for Chinese interest in other geostrategic areas. Two aspects that are extremely relevant in this analysis are: firstly, the economic and commercial issue, and secondly, the aspect of national security.

One of the great interests of China is the expansion of its commercial routes with the aim of having greater power in maritime trade and an exponential reach towards vital countries with which it has an important economic relationship. The expansion of these routes arises from the need to diversify them; In the southern part, China has the 21st century Maritime Silk Road as part of the strategy known as “OBOR” (One Belt One Road).

The aforementioned route has origins on the east coast of China, passes through the South Sea, connecting the Spratly Islands, the Strait of Malacca in order to have access to the entire Indo-Pacific area, which allows it to expand towards the markets of Western Asia and Africa, which are exporters par excellence of natural resources that China needs for its national, military and economic development.

However, this southern route also carries a risk that Chinese government strategists consider, the fact that 80% of the oil imported by Beijing passes through the Indian Ocean and the Strait of Malacca, poses a security threat. due to the volatility of the conflicts in that area, as well as the presence of European powers, but even more so of two of China's most important rivals: the United States and India. These actors pose a threat to the PRC due to territorial and geopolitical disputes over control of the Malacca Strait.

In this sense, one of the purposes that influenced the creation of the Polar Silk Road was the security of essential energy supply for China, as well as the expansion of its alternative routes with a future perspective that results in the approach of a scenario that China would undoubtedly fear in its existence: if at some point the conflicts within Southeast Asia worsen and its Indian and US rivals decide to blockade the Straits of Malacca, China would find itself locked within its own region, halting its economic growth.

Taking this hypothetical situation into account, China maintains its preventive measures by increasing its strategic and commercial oil reserves thanks to its long-term vision in order to care for and maintain its status quo as an emerging world power.

Therefore, the Arctic Silk Road is considered a strategy that helps to diversify its energy and trade pathways with two purposes: first, to maintain energy security that is not at risk of collapse in the event of any confrontation of a warlike nature, and the second, to expand the Chinese ideology through diplomacy and international cooperation.

The three routes of the Belt and Road Initiative.

In this sense, China is characterized by exercising South-South cooperation diplomacy when executing its foreign policy in relation to countries of its interest, and the Arctic countries have not been the exception, an example of this is the offer that He did to Denmark to establish a research station in Greenland, as well as the renovation of its airports, coupled with this, he offered the possibility of expanding mineral exploration. However, and as expected, the US supported Denmark to reject that offer in exchange for the same benefits offered, but by the US nation.

Despite the Danish refusal, China did not stop to continue looking for strategic allies within Europe, knowing that in 2019 the European Union formally declared Beijing a "strategic rival", but the objectives of the Asian country looked with greater interest to Central and Eastern Europe, those countries that at the time were members of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

However, China seeks even more legitimate support from nations belonging to the Arctic, which is why one of its most important allies is Russia, being the largest country in the world, connecting Europe and Asia, which gives it a strategic location by having outlet to the Pacific and Arctic oceans.

The relevance of Sino-Russian relations can be analyzed from different perspectives, however, what the present analysis is based on is the territorial, military and economic power that both nations create in their entirety. The cooperation between them suggests an exponential creation of opportunities for collaboration in the regional and international security sector vis-à-vis the United States of America.

Conclusions

Throughout world history, peoples, civilizations and later the modern State took into account an important aspect for the development of their foreign and international policy: geography. Said element contains a wide variety of edges for its analysis in relation to the States: it ranges from territorial extension, proximity to the sea, adjoining other States to being far from these geographical contexts that are tools for their development.

In recent years, the presence of China and Russia around the world has been strengthened thanks to the undertaking of diplomatic strategies to ensure a rapprochement with those countries that have similarities with both.

While it is true, these two States have particular national interests, they are aware that in today's world where interdependent relationships predominate, it is necessary to have allies that complement their actions to reach a common goal that is beneficial to both.

In this sense, the positive characteristics of each one of these nations, such as the economic, military, territorial, diplomatic and political aspects, are points in favor so that they jointly develop a foreign policy. Therefore, the geopolitical issue of the Arctic finds a strategic sense for both China and Russia due to the geographical characteristics and natural resources that this mass contains, which are of great benefit for Sino-Russian national development for the purpose of world preponderance.

The fact that there are interests in this area gives both of them an advantage. On the one hand, Russia is an Arctic nation by nature, which gives it a privileged status in decision-making within this area, since due to its proximity it concerns you to safeguard your interests within these limits. On the contrary, China is a semi-arctic nation, it does not share any territorial proximity with this polar side, however, the interests and proactivity of Xi Jinping's nation in the Arctic opened a space for him to be part of the Council of the Arctic and have the power to issue opinions that have an effect on this space.

It is necessary to remember that one of the characteristics that make the Arctic a vital space for the world and more than anything for the countries already mentioned is that according to the US Geological Survey, the Arctic has around 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil. , which in a percentage amount represents 13% of the global black gold, as well as 30% of the world's natural gas not yet discovered.

It seems that energy security and the resources that maintain it have become one of the greatest global concerns, likewise the territories that possess them are a defined target for those powers that have interests in said resources, however, technology plays a role. important role at the time of making these, in this way the Chinese presence in the Arctic is justified by being one of the Asian countries that has high technology to obtain the mentioned resources, backed by Russia, the arctic nation par excellence. That said, the Sino-Russian takeover of the Arctic may turn out to be the great strategic execution of the 21st century.