Mexico's position in the face of Joe Biden's virtual triumph. State survival and political positioning.

In a special and characteristic contest for the presidency of the United States this 2020, the triumph of the virtual winning candidate, Joe Biden, has been involved in an internal political dispute; amid accusations of fraud by the still US president, Donald Trump, and in a contrasting way, showing strong support for his possible victory from various power groups, which include both Democrats and Republicans, and even corporate power and of the mass media.

After a close election and a vote count that took several days, in addition to President Donald Trump's declaration of the probable execution of electoral fraud, which, in fact, was censored by the most important television networks nationwide; On November 7, it was announced in the North American mass media that the candidate, Joe Biden, would have reached 270 electoral votes that ensured him victory in the US presidential campaign. It was to be expected that Donald Trump would reject the result and even announce that he would take it to litigation, at the time of making it official.

In accordance with the North American electoral process, the virtual results of this contest become official after next December 14, the date on which the voters of the North American Electoral College officially cast their vote for any of the candidates, it is at that time , in which one of the parties can legally express the discount with the results, and then a dispute would begin that should be resolved in the best of cases before January 2021, the date on which he must take office, the new United States's president. [[1]]

Despite the fact that there are still some steps to be taken and a path of more than two months with Donald Trump at the head of the White House, the truth is that the virtual triumph of Joe Biden has already been recognized by a large part of the actors of the International System , other heads of state have been quick to extend their congratulations to the candidate and to celebrate the departure from power of a character like the current US president. However, this has not been the case in Mexico; President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has declared that congratulations will come when the results are made official, in order to avoid taking sides in a conflict exclusive to the Americans, thus adhering to the principles of Mexican Foreign Policy, of Non-Intervention and Free Determination of the villages.

The latter has caused special controversy both internationally and within Mexican limits, the opposition in Mexico has taken the US election as a flag to strengthen some movements and arguments against official power; from the discussion around the right of the media to censor the president, to the arguments that accuse him of committing the biggest diplomatic error so far in his six-year term, alluding to a possible relationship or personal agreement with his American counterpart. , or comparing this situation with the recent reception in the national territory of Evo Morales, former president of Bolivia, as a political refugee, in which case they say, Mexican diplomacy took sides.

Although outside of the internal political situation in Mexico, the intentions of the opposition, or even the interests that may exist on the International Stage around the political direction of the United States; What is certain is that the decision of the Mexican State not to congratulate, yet, the virtual winning candidate of the presidential election in the neighboring country, responds to a much more complex logic than a diplomatic error or some personal interest of the executive. This position is the result of Mexico's desire for international positioning, which has already been worked on on several fronts in this six-year term, which is also supported by a historical-constitutional logic of adherence to solid principles of Foreign Policy and which also responds to the strategic management of the most important geopolitical relationship for the country, in order to always guarantee the best possible conditions with the world power with which they share the greatest interests.

In order to support this position and verify that this diplomatic position not only guarantees for Mexico the comfortable and calm development of its relationship with the United States from now to the moment of the presidential transition in that country, but also supports its position in the International System, helping him to mark the strength of his Foreign Policy principles and profiling him again as a leader of the Latin American region; We are going to proceed to analyze some specific elements of the situation to thoroughly review the logic of this controversial decision.

The context and the actors.

In this section, the most relevant actors in the generation of the controversy and the context to which they respond at the time of its execution will be reviewed, although it is true that in theory the most important agents would be those directly involved, candidates and presidential figures, What is certain is that the media and groups opposed to official power, in the particular case of Mexico, are the ones who have given the case greater relevance.

Donald Trump: The role of Donald Trump is probably the most significant in the controversy of the US election, since it is he directly, who has accused the process of fraudulent, who ignored the preliminary result and who insists on reaching litigation , once it is allowed, this in his position as a candidate. On the other hand, there is his position as the current president of the United States, which although, as has been seen, does not guarantee him absolute power over the power, it does allow him to lead his path at least until next January 2021.

Joe Biden: The virtual winner for the presidency of the United States has remained cautious and in a politically correct position before the triumph, has received and accepted the congratulations of a large number of representatives of other States, as well as declared openly before and after, his desire to cooperate with Mexico. He obviously has the support of the international community and the most important power groups in his own country, so despite the complicated situation that is being presented, he is clearly emerging as the next president of the United States, with all the power that comes with it.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: As the official representative of one of the main neighbors of the United States and as who will be its president, both during the last months of Donald Trump's term and during the entire presidential term of Joe Biden, he has declared only that he is respectful of the North American electoral process, that he has no conflict or particular affinity for any of the candidates and that he will wait for the result to be official so that his congratulations to the winner fall within the framework of prudence.

"We are going to wait for all legal issues to be resolved, we do not want to be reckless, we do not want to act lightly, we want to be respectful of the self-determination of peoples and the rights of others" [[2]]

International Actors: In this section, we will refer as international actors only to the Heads of State or Heads of Government who have had a direct relationship in the controversy over the recognition of the results of the US election; In the context, it is evident that the support of the international community is for Joe Biden, since not only has he been recognized and congratulated as the new president of the United States, but he has the sympathy of the majority of the official representatives of the System International.

American press: It is also important to highlight the concrete and direct support of the American power groups towards the virtual winning candidate, which has been reflected in the official and absolute declaration of his victory in the mass media and the censures the president in turn in his claim of fraud. Which makes it clear that no other actor needs to anticipate his support, since both internally and internationally, the positions are clear.

Mexican opposition: Despite the fact that the Mexican decision does not have a significant impact on the internal process in the United States, nor on the future relationship between Joe Biden and Andrés Manuel López Obrador; And it does have it on the current bilateral relationship and on the positions that Mexico marks in the world; The Mexican opposition has decided to make this issue a national discussion, and accuse the official power, without any basis in Foreign Policy or Diplomacy, of committing the biggest strategic error, comparing it with absolutely different processes, such as that of Bolivia. Even where it should be remembered that the result was not doubted but the percentages, that a second process was considered and that finally the legitimate figure of political asylum was resorted to for a conflict that exceeded the limits of electoral confrontation, in addition to also consider the obvious geopolitical differences.

The intention to make this a topic in the national discussion is largely due to the wear and tear of the opposition itself, its lack of clarity in the course to be taken and the obvious need to dispute all the decisions of the official power.

Channels and positions

As has already become clear, we are facing two different scenarios around the controversial position of Mexico. The one presented by unofficial channels, such as the Mexican national press and opposition groups in general, which have exacerbated the international impact of the official position and have endeavored to alter the statements so that they appear to be a conflict between Joe Biden and López Obrador, or the terrible diplomatic error that they have wanted to project.

And the true bilateral and international scenario, where the only thing that has been alluded to by the Mexican State is respect for sovereignty, in which the position has caused controversy on the International Stage, but for clearly positioning certain principles of Foreign Policy, and where the accredited channels to do so, in this case President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Secretary of Foreign Relations, Marcelo Ebrad, and the Mexican Ambassador to the United States, Martha Bárcena, have only expressed respect for internal processes from the neighboring country.

"Mexico considers that issuing opinions, comments or positions regarding internal processes can be considered interventionist" [[3]]

Historical-constitutional support and Conjuncture

It is important then, to support this thesis, to make clear the historical-constitutional reasons that support Mexico's position in the face of Joe Biden's virtual triumph and the specific situation of the present government regime that has sought, since I took office, to rescue the official discourse. of Foreign Policy and the principles that have been constitutional since 1988. Following this framework, it would be necessary to establish in the first instance that what Mexico has done is in no way ignorant, since:

"Mexico does not pronounce itself in the sense of granting recognitions, because it considers that this is a degrading practice that, by hurting the sovereignty of other nations, places them in the event that their internal affairs can be qualified in any way by other governments. , who in fact, assume a critical attitude, when deciding, favorably or unfavorably, on the legal capacity of foreign regimes.” [[4]]

Rather, Mexico's position has been one of absolute respect for US sovereignty, avoiding taking any kind of side in a conflict that must be resolved only internally.

“equality, mutual respect for institutions and laws, and the firm and constant will never to intervene, under any pretext, in the internal affairs of other countries… trying at the same time to obtain… treatment equal to that granted , that is, that it be considered a Sovereign Nation..., that its laws and institutions be respected and that its internal affairs not be intervened in any way.” [[5]]

The above are precepts established in two of the most important Foreign Policy doctrines in Mexico, used in international action since 1935 and the basis of some of the most outstanding Constitutional Principles in this same area. Its use has been widespread and has given the State the ability to establish a solid, defensive, participatory and active position in the International System, in addition to facilitating the most significant achievements in terms of diplomacy.

The current government regime led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has placed special emphasis on its rigorous monitoring, in order to rescue these guidelines after their gradual oblivion by the neoliberal governments of the last four decades; Therefore, it is also part of its flag to rescue and act in accordance with the noble historical tradition of its constitutional use and thus recover both Mexico's position on the world scene and leadership in its traditional area of influence, Latin America.

Final Considerations

Once the situation, the actors, the interests at stake, the positions, and above all the historical-constitutional reasons that have led Mexico to act with caution in this case, have been analyzed, it is easier to read its position in depth and understand that not anticipating the congratulations of the virtual winning candidate of the US election, responds mainly to three important reasons: a historical-constitutional one, which has to do with the consistency that the State owes both to its laws and its noble tradition of Politics Foreign, another geopolitical, regarding the permanence of Donald Trump in the White House and the need for Mexico to be extremely respectful of the internal processes of the neighboring country, and a third of political positioning that the current Mexican regime constantly seeks, cases of participation international community that respond to this objective, there are enough to mention, his active participation in the search for a vaccine against COVID-19 and its regulation in the UN, his clear position on the cases of Bolivia and Venezuela, and his path to the Council Security, are some.

Also noteworthy is the fact that the lack of an early congratulations to Joe Biden does not necessarily mean a bad start with who will be the next president of the United States, since both parties are willing to cooperate.

“He also stated that the federal Executive is convinced that the bilateral relationship will be as fruitful and productive as it should be. Mexico, he added, is ready to work with the future government of the United States in a constructive manner, based on the ties of friendship and good neighborliness that unite the two nations. [[6]]