21st Century Hegemony: A Chinese or an American Tale?

Over the past 20 years, the narrative of China as the next hegemon has grown stronger. Being the second largest economy in the world, today it has the greatest influence to carry out its agenda in the global sphere. However, there are a series of internal and external challenges that put the possibility of becoming the next world power at stake. This leads to questioning whether this hegemonic promise is true or whether it is a Chinese tale.

The story abroad

In Il Milione, better known as The Travels of Marco Polo, fantastic facts about the East are narrated and they describe mythological creatures, for which reason they were attributed as "Chinese tales" and not true narrations. The RAE defines this expression as a lie, a lie that disguises reality and, although it is not completely false, it is an exaggeration.[1] Currently, China has incredible geopolitical capacity, but it hides challenges that could slow its path to hegemony.

It has built its economic and political power faster than any other state. In four decades, it increased its participation and investment in countries of Latin America, Africa, and currently proposes the [New Silk Road] project (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt- and-road-initiative) in Asia. In the innovation sector, it became a major player, transferring foreign technology to its own industries, becoming more competitive.[2] Chinese 5G technology, for example, will be a key point in the development of telecommunications around the world.

But increasing this influence quickly cost him a tarnished image in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Europe - not to mention the United States. In the case of its African relations as well: those countries that were open to investment now face unpayable interests (especially after the current crisis).[3] It received criticism from institutions such as the WTO for its unfair trade practices and from the UN for the military deployment in the South China Sea, as well as tensions with India and Taiwan; the latter could be the reason for more serious conflicts with the United States.

A Pew Research survey from October 2020 showed a negative opinion on China from nations such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. According to the survey, 74% have unfavorable opinions about Xi Jinping, his government and the country in general. The data does not differ in the case of its regional neighbors: Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia and Japan show an average of 56% mistrust towards China in 2019, a figure that is expected to increase due to the pandemic.[4]

This is the result of coercive practices. For example, when the Australian government called for a rigorous investigation into the origin of the coronavirus, China placed tariffs of up to [80% on exports](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01- 03/heres-what-happened-between-china-and-australia-in-2020/13019242) of Australian barley (one of the main goods sold by the country). In October 2020, in the Republic of Fiji, [Chinese diplomats crashed a reception](https://www.infobae.com/america/mundo/2020/10/19/dos-funcionarios-chinos-se-infiltraron-a -a-party-of-taiwan-diplomats-and-they-ended-with-coups/) organized by the Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which led to a fight between officials from both countries.[5]

In Africa, a region that has received significant Chinese investment for infrastructure and mineral extraction projects, governments such as Tanzania, Nigeria and Zambia are in financial crisis due to the interest rates that were negotiated with China. In countries that are part of the New Silk Road, particularly Kazakhstan, Laos and Myanmar (which prior to the coup in February already [expressed concerns about over-indebtedness](https://eurasiantimes.com/myanmar-getting- very-concerned-by-chinese-belt-road-initiative-bri/) with China for this project), claims have been raised about a lack of transparency in the projects and a lack of environmental impact studies.[6]

Another consideration is that China borders 14 countries, four of which have nuclear weapons. Its neighbors are also countries like Japan, which has US military backing as well as a strong economy; India, nationalist and regional power (and large population); Russia, with whom it must mediate its geopolitics; and South Korea, a case similar to Japan that is competition in technology. In addition, its military strength lies in its size, but whose aeronautics depends on foreign oil, since China is dependent on fossil fuels.[7]

Diplomats from China and the United States hold their first meeting since Joe Biden's inauguration.

The story inside

The challenges China faces at home are just as complex as those abroad. Policy towards Hong Kong, for example, damages confidence in Asian markets while generating discontent with the Communist Party of China (CCP). Integrating the Hong Kong population has been impossible peacefully, so the government opted to implement reforms such as the [Hong Kong Security Act](https://www.amnesty.org/es/latest/news/2020 /07/hong-kong-national-security-law-10-things-you-need-to-know/) in 2020, and in March of this year the vice president of the National People's Congress of China declared necessary to be reforms for the "risks in the system" and will seek that only "patriots" are in office in the Hong Kong electoral system.[8]

The case of the Uyghur camps in Xin-Jiang has also caused great discontent.A BBC report revealed strong testimonies of the "rehabilitation" where there is forced sterilization, rape and torture. While Human Rights Watch called for the separation of 880,000 children from their parents. This led to the Chinese government being charged with crimes of genocide in European courts and the US State Department; sanctions were even imposed on public figures. This generates tensions abroad, but also internally, where it must mediate with a marginalized population.

Economically, China is in the middle-income trap, which occurs when middle-income states have passed their first stage of industrialization; where the increase in wages eliminates the previous advantages of having cheap labor. In short, its export model is worn out - one of the reasons why it seeks to invest in innovation.[9]

Added to this, it is at risk of "getting old before it gets rich": it is expected that by[ 2050 at least 26% of its population will be over 65](https://chinapower.csis.org/aging- problem/#:~:text=In%202015%2C%209.5%20percent%20of,Korea%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States.). As a consequence, the country will go from eight workers per retiree to having two workers per retiree. In addition, although economic growth in cities such as Shanghai and Beijing shows an improvement in the income of citizens, economic inequality between provinces will be a weight to drag. The income margin between urban areas and rural provinces is 4-1, (for reference, in the US it is 2-1).[10] Inequality in China will require efforts on the part of the government to prevent it from being a factor of social disruption.

Due to the foregoing, it will seek to focus its efforts on consolidating greater stability within to prevent inequality from being a factor of rupture.[11] To do this, it promotes a nationalist discourse within, which supports the party while taking advantage of sanctions, tariffs, and diplomatic problems with the West to discredit it.[12] Specifically, China faces challenges that show a path to hegemony that is not linear and there are factors that could slow its progress. However, like Marco Polo's voyages, there is truth to some stories and it is likely that his American rival will not be able to maintain his role for decades to come either.

The American tale and the next hegemony

China knows the challenges it will face in the coming years and its strategy will not be to sit idle. On the contrary, on the issue of energy dependence, it accelerates its transition to renewable energy while consolidating value chains around materials for wind turbines and solar panels. Regarding its diplomacy, it maintains important alliances to advance such ambitious development projects that include even a space station in alliance with Russia.

In addition, the Xi Jinping government has used the last four years to discredit American leadership, a result of the Donald Trump administration.[13] The US continues to pay for a reputation for intervention in the Middle East, structural racism and violations of migrant rights. Joe Biden may not be enough to change this perspective.

In other words, the US does not have an easy path when it comes to maintaining its hegemony. He must grapple with a discrepancy between the role that political leaders seek for the United States in the International System, versus that expected by its citizens, who are demanding greater attention to domestic problems.[14] Added to this, Biden's strategy towards Beijing did not begin as a restart in the relationship, on the contrary, one of the first meetings with the Chinese delegation resulted in an uncomfortable exchange of insults between diplomats. Using China as a scapegoat for domestic or global problems could increase tensions between governments and their citizens alike. There is already a significant movement in defense of Asian Americans stemming from growing racism, fueled by Trump rhetoric and misinformation.[15] By not measuring its actions, the US could lose allies and be cut off from value chains that interact with industries in Asia.

If both states face internal and external challenges, which of them will be the next hegemon? It is possible that each one generates more or less pressure in different spheres of the world and, also, in various economic, technological and even environmental sectors. Therefore, although it sounds optimistic, both will have to manage an interdependent relationship. In simple words, working their agendas within the limits imposed not by ideology (as was the case during the Cold War) but by their actual capabilities.[16]

In conclusion, the tale of Chinese hegemony is just as real (or fictional) as the tale of America's continuation. In reality, both will have to face an interdependent world with problems such as inequality, social discontent and climate change. Managing this relationship effectively could bring more solutions than problems and improve the perception of both powers in the international arena.